Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.73 – 189.41

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 100.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.4 ±17.5

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 127.48Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10689KAGITHANE TEKNOLOJI TAKIMI

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 35.83Rank 26Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

7444MOON STAR ROBOTICS

Season APEX 149Event APEX 106.42Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.5 ±16

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 75.09Rank 11Record 4-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 49.58Rank 20Record 3-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 64.74Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6429, 10689, 7444

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6429, 10689, 7444

Auto

64.4 24%

Teleop

150.5 57%

Endgame

50.0 19%

Strengths

· 6429 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8806, 8182, 6014

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8806, 8182, 6014

Auto

22.2 12%

Teleop

108.7 58%

Endgame

55.1 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score269.7pts

Blue projected score189.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.3
Score range: 164–295
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.4Season APEX235.5

64.4Auto22.2

150.5Teleop108.7

50Endgame55.1

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	38
teleop	242	107
endgame	122	56
foul	0	15
total	445	216

Result

Final score

445 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 100.9 pts

Match videos

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