Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.14 – 48.71

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 78.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.9 ±22

7444MOON STAR ROBOTICS

Season APEX 149Event APEX 57.43Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10203LANCE

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 5.71Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 34Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.4 ±19.1

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 5.71Rank 40Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9089ACS Phoenix

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 13.5Rank 29Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 29.5Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7444, 10203, 6228

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7444, 10203, 6228

Auto

20.9 22%

Teleop

50.0 53%

Endgame

23.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10243, 9089, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10243, 9089, 8595

Auto

16.5 40%

Teleop

19.5 47%

Endgame

5.4 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.1pts

Blue projected score48.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.4
Score range: 28–118
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.9Season APEX388.4

20.9Auto16.5

50Teleop19.5

23.4Endgame5.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	37
teleop	95	85
endgame	30	12
foul	5	0
total	168	134

Result

Final score

168 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 78.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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