Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.2 – 182.11

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±18

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX -7.1Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10445HYPERVOLT

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX -22.53Rank 43Record 0-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 137.83Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.5 ±19.7

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 46.68Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9555TEAM HELIOS

Provisional

Season APEX 33Event APEX 12.08Rank 41Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 123.35Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10598, 10445, 6429

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10598, 10445, 6429

Auto

34.6 32%

Teleop

63.6 58%

Endgame

11.1 10%

Strengths

· 6429 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11442, 9555, 7840

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11442, 9555, 7840

Auto

31.9 17%

Teleop

103.5 56%

Endgame

50.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.2pts

Blue projected score182.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.9
Score range: 81–209
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.4Season APEX310.5

34.6Auto31.9

63.6Teleop103.5

11.1Endgame50.1

71Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	35
teleop	86	110
endgame	5	32
foul	5	0
total	122	177

Result

Final score

122 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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