Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.04 – 199.28

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.5 ±19.4

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 18.49Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 14.9Rank 38Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 53.65Rank 20Record 3-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.2 ±16.8

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 29.66Rank 27Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 133.33Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10236REXTED

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 36.29Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9231, 10521, 8182

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9231, 10521, 8182

Auto

28.0 33%

Teleop

46.0 55%

Endgame

9.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8859, 7840, 10236

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 7840, 10236

Auto

43.4 22%

Teleop

99.7 51%

Endgame

51.3 26%

Strengths

· 7840 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87pts

Blue projected score199.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.2
Score range: 64–222
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 128.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.5Season APEX309.2

28Auto43.4

46Teleop99.7

9.7Endgame51.3

20Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	37
teleop	14	44
endgame	20	49
foul	5	0
total	51	130

Result

Final score

51 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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