Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.06 – 152.5

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.6 ±19.1

10445HYPERVOLT

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX -24.97Rank 43Record 0-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10689KAGITHANE TEKNOLOJI TAKIMI

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 40.22Rank 26Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 95.81Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.3 ±17.6

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 111.98Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11335MARETECH

Provisional

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 33.99Rank 14Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 6.53Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10445, 10689, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10445, 10689, 8595

Auto

34.3 32%

Teleop

53.9 51%

Endgame

17.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11216, 11335, 10598

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 11335, 10598

Auto

28.1 19%

Teleop

87.3 60%

Endgame

31.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.4
Score range: 88–176
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 128.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.6Season APEX336.3

34.3Auto28.1

53.9Teleop87.3

17.5Endgame31

112Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	20
teleop	65	69
endgame	19	30
foul	0	10
total	118	129

Result

Final score

118 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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