Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.04 – 42.13

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239 ±18.1

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 31.71Rank 30Record 2-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 69

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 78.48Rank 11Record 4-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 0.85Rank 19Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.5 ±23.7

11388STEAM & IRON ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 27.04Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9591DESTAN

Provisional

Season APEX 29.2Event APEX -11.21Rank 42Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10236REXTED

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 26.3Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11453, 8806, 11371

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11453, 8806, 11371

Auto

13.5 13%

Teleop

65.2 62%

Endgame

26.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11388, 9591, 10236

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11388, 9591, 10236

Auto

7.5 23%

Teleop

9.3 29%

Endgame

15.5 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111pts

Blue projected score42.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.9
Score range: 15–138
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239Season APEX159.5

13.5Auto7.5

65.2Teleop9.3

26.6Endgame15.5

52Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	11
teleop	58	2
endgame	20	5
foul	0	5
total	86	23

Result

Final score

86 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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