Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.4 – 183.99

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±16.6

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 72.55Rank 11Record 4-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 54.28Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 15.57Rank 32Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±15.3

7444MOON STAR ROBOTICS

Season APEX 149Event APEX 102.25Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 22.88Rank 15Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 58.86Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8806, 11442, 9020

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8806, 11442, 9020

Auto

-4.1 0%

Teleop

100.8 72%

Endgame

43.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7444, 9247, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7444, 9247, 8151

Auto

27.2 15%

Teleop

111.8 62%

Endgame

41.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.4pts

Blue projected score184pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 119–207
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.5Season APEX248.2

-4.1Auto27.2

100.8Teleop111.8

43Endgame41.2

1Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	50
teleop	76	148
endgame	44	14
foul	10	0
total	148	212

Result

Final score

148 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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