Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.73 – 40.89

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.4 ±19.5

9591DESTAN

Provisional

Season APEX 29.2Event APEX -13.21Rank 42Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9089ACS Phoenix

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 46.18Rank 29Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 18.76Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129 ±23.7

9497NIMBLE PANTHER

Provisional

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 24.51Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10549Robocretors Team

Provisional

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 4.15Rank 37Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9555TEAM HELIOS

Provisional

Season APEX 33Event APEX 12.23Rank 41Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9591, 9089, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9591, 9089, 10202

Auto

24.9 45%

Teleop

18.6 34%

Endgame

11.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9497, 10549, 9555

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9497, 10549, 9555

Auto

8.9 23%

Teleop

29.9 76%

Endgame

0.3 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.7pts

Blue projected score40.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.8
Score range: 17–76
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 130.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.4Season APEX129

24.9Auto8.9

18.6Teleop29.9

11.6Endgame0.3

33Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	56	0
endgame	31	0
foul	0	0
total	99	13

Result

Final score

99 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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