Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.43 – 153.75

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201 ±20.3

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 36.27Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 16.23Rank 28Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX -1.07Rank 40Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355 ±15.9

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 112.21Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 44.48Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -2.94Rank 38Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7050, 11010, 10243

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7050, 11010, 10243

Auto

12.0 26%

Teleop

22.7 50%

Endgame

10.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7840, 9025, 10521

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7840, 9025, 10521

Auto

32.5 21%

Teleop

80.9 53%

Endgame

39.4 26%

Strengths

· 7840 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.4pts

Blue projected score153.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.3
Score range: 29–176
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201Season APEX355

12Auto32.5

22.7Teleop80.9

10.6Endgame39.4

0Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	53
teleop	15	147
endgame	13	72
foul	5	0
total	46	272

Result

Final score

46 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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