Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.02 – 89.01

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.2 ±18.5

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 27.63Rank 27Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 4.32Rank 36Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10203LANCE

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 29.07Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.2 ±21.4

11388STEAM & IRON ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 19.51Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 28.67Rank 30Record 2-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 69

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 40.83Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8859, 10383, 10203

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 10383, 10203

Auto

15.6 30%

Teleop

11.2 22%

Endgame

25.1 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11388, 11453, 6014

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11388, 11453, 6014

Auto

23.1 28%

Teleop

34.7 42%

Endgame

24.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score89pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28
Score range: 39–111
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.2Season APEX197.2

15.6Auto23.1

11.2Teleop34.7

25.1Endgame24.2

70Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	3	96
endgame	13	49
foul	5	20
total	34	185

Result

Final score

34 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 61.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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