Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.15 – 74.37

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±19.5

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 22.37Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8759ARPEX

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 18.11Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10689KAGITHANE TEKNOLOJI TAKIMI

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 56.67Rank 26Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.1 ±13.3

9247SainTech Robotics

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 12.94Rank 15Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 5.82Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 55.61Rank 11Record 4-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10598, 8759, 10689

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10598, 8759, 10689

Auto

19.7 22%

Teleop

46.9 53%

Endgame

21.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9247, 9231, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9247, 9231, 8806

Auto

11.1 16%

Teleop

37.4 52%

Endgame

23.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.2pts

Blue projected score74.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.8
Score range: 51–120
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

147.5Season APEX260.1

19.7Auto11.1

46.9Teleop37.4

21.7Endgame23.1

42Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	3	125
endgame	5	22
foul	5	0
total	25	160

Result

Final score

25 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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