Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.81 – 179.85

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±19.5

9555TEAM HELIOS

Provisional

Season APEX 33Event APEX 14.54Rank 41Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

7444MOON STAR ROBOTICS

Season APEX 149Event APEX 104.39Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 30.88Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±13.4

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 6.94Rank 19Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 118.82Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 54.09Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9555, 7444, 10202

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9555, 7444, 10202

Auto

38.6 26%

Teleop

97.7 65%

Endgame

14.1 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11371, 11216, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11371, 11216, 8151

Auto

22.2 12%

Teleop

118.4 66%

Endgame

39.3 22%

Strengths

· 11216 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.8pts

Blue projected score179.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30
Score range: 128–202
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.7Season APEX312.5

38.6Auto22.2

97.7Teleop118.4

14.1Endgame39.3

16Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	28
teleop	61	104
endgame	15	51
foul	0	5
total	124	188

Result

Final score

124 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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