Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.05 – 102.65

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.8 ±18.8

9089ACS Phoenix

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 57.57Rank 29Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 43.98Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10251Chimera

Provisional

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 6.5Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234 ±20.7

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 6.46Rank 38Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11335MARETECH

Provisional

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 40.14Rank 14Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 56.05Rank 8Record 5-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9089, 9025, 10251

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9089, 9025, 10251

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

58.2 53%

Endgame

37.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10521, 11335, 9232

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10521, 11335, 9232

Auto

11.0 11%

Teleop

64.2 66%

Endgame

21.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.1pts

Blue projected score102.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 81–130
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.8Season APEX234

13.3Auto11

58.2Teleop64.2

37.8Endgame21.6

58Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	30
teleop	31	45
endgame	29	9
foul	5	5
total	85	89

Result

Final score

85 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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