Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.43 – 105.02

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±16.6

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 15.78Rank 32Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 51.06Rank 20Record 3-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 119.59Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±20

10549Robocretors Team

Provisional

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 3.73Rank 37Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 39.28Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 62.01Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9020, 8182, 11216

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9020, 8182, 11216

Auto

35.6 19%

Teleop

102.0 56%

Endgame

46.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10549, 6228, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

105 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10549, 6228, 9025

Auto

10.6 10%

Teleop

61.6 57%

Endgame

35.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.4pts

Blue projected score105pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.4
Score range: 78–213
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.1Season APEX209.1

35.6Auto10.6

102Teleop61.6

46.1Endgame35.7

22Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	14
teleop	107	75
endgame	20	30
foul	0	0
total	161	119

Result

Final score

161 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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