Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.96 – 133.13

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.5 ±18.7

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 35.2Rank 20Record 3-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 204.66Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 22.1Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.8 ±20.5

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 20.45Rank 36Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 79.18Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 33.5Rank 30Record 2-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8182, 2905, 7050

/ 100 compat

Projected

262 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8182, 2905, 7050

Auto

58.5 23%

Teleop

142.8 55%

Endgame

56.5 22%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10383, 11442, 11453

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10383, 11442, 11453

Auto

3.6 3%

Teleop

71.6 56%

Endgame

53.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score262pts

Blue projected score133.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.8
Score range: 111–284
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.5Season APEX216.8

58.5Auto3.6

142.8Teleop71.6

56.5Endgame53.5

91Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	12
teleop	194	40
endgame	79	21
foul	0	5
total	346	78

Result

Final score

346 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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