Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.96 – 88.62

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±16.3

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 39.54Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 95.99Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 3.43Rank 28Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.1 ±21.4

10549Robocretors Team

Provisional

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 12.7Rank 37Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 40.56Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10203LANCE

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 35.36Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6228, 7840, 11010

/ 100 compat

Projected

139 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6228, 7840, 11010

Auto

26.0 20%

Teleop

89.7 67%

Endgame

17.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10549, 6014, 10203

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10549, 6014, 10203

Auto

19.8 21%

Teleop

49.7 54%

Endgame

22.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.3
Score range: 67–161
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 121.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.5Season APEX137.1

26Auto19.8

89.7Teleop49.7

17.5Endgame22.7

85Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	23
teleop	87	38
endgame	53	34
foul	10	0
total	187	95

Result

Final score

187 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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