Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.4 – 116.29

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.6 ±16.8

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 77.11Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 17.03Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8308GFLRobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 41.26Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.1 ±13.3

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 58.65Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 30.47Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 27.17Rank 27Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8595, 10598, 8308

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8595, 10598, 8308

Auto

61.8 49%

Teleop

56.6 45%

Endgame

6.8 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8151, 10202, 8859

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 10202, 8859

Auto

13.2 12%

Teleop

79.0 70%

Endgame

21.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.4pts

Blue projected score116.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.1
Score range: 94–157
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.6Season APEX281.1

61.8Auto13.2

56.6Teleop79

6.8Endgame21.2

94Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	11
teleop	57	49
endgame	19	29
foul	20	15
total	131	104

Result

Final score

131 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 8.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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