Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.27 – 43.45

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.5 ±21

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 75.07Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10203LANCE

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 21.96Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11335MARETECH

Provisional

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 11.24Rank 14Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.6 ±21.7

8759ARPEX

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 43.51Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 21.31Rank 36Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9591DESTAN

Provisional

Season APEX 29.2Event APEX -21.37Rank 42Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7840, 10203, 11335

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7840, 10203, 11335

Auto

24.8 24%

Teleop

55.9 53%

Endgame

24.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8759, 10383, 9591

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8759, 10383, 9591

Auto

8.4 17%

Teleop

18.8 39%

Endgame

21.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.3pts

Blue projected score43.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.8
Score range: 22–129
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.5Season APEX113.6

24.8Auto8.4

55.9Teleop18.8

24.6Endgame21.2

136Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	9
teleop	136	7
endgame	58	0
foul	0	5
total	239	21

Result

Final score

239 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 76.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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