Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.04 – 75.23

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.2 ±17.1

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 70.19Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 50.59Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8759ARPEX

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 33.26Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.5 ±21

11392Gulf Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX -0.13Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11453FutureX Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX -3.14Rank 30Record 2-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 69

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 78.5Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7840, 8151, 8759

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7840, 8151, 8759

Auto

18.7 12%

Teleop

93.2 60%

Endgame

42.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11392, 11453, 11216

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11392, 11453, 11216

Auto

30.7 47%

Teleop

17.4 27%

Endgame

16.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154pts

Blue projected score75.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.8
Score range: 54–175
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.2Season APEX301.5

18.7Auto30.7

93.2Teleop17.4

42.7Endgame16.8

60Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	40
teleop	130	76
endgame	41	45
foul	0	0
total	204	161

Result

Final score

204 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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