Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.45 – 111.63

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.9 ±20.7

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 39.63Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 49.76Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10445HYPERVOLT

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 24.06Rank 43Record 0-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.3 ±17.3

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 60.01Rank 11Record 4-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 46.07Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 5.55Rank 36Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9231, 6228, 10445

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9231, 6228, 10445

Auto

23.2 21%

Teleop

75.9 69%

Endgame

11.1 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8806, 7050, 10383

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8806, 7050, 10383

Auto

14.9 14%

Teleop

57.7 55%

Endgame

32.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.5pts

Blue projected score111.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.8
Score range: 91–134
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.9Season APEX265.3

23.2Auto14.9

75.9Teleop57.7

11.1Endgame32.4

134Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	10
teleop	10	73
endgame	4	55
foul	0	0
total	27	138

Result

Final score

27 – 138

Prediction missed · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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