Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.42 – 201.18

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.3 ±20

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 4.01Rank 38Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9497NIMBLE PANTHER

Provisional

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 75.16Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 38.25Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.4 ±16.6

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 32.91Rank 19Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 91.46Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 76.81Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10521, 9497, 6014

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10521, 9497, 6014

Auto

28.2 26%

Teleop

54.2 49%

Endgame

28.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11371, 8595, 11442

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11371, 8595, 11442

Auto

42.3 21%

Teleop

128.5 65%

Endgame

27.2 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117.4pts

Blue projected score201.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.8
Score range: 96–222
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 116.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.3Season APEX431.4

28.2Auto42.3

54.2Teleop128.5

28Endgame27.2

42Consistency213

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	37
teleop	33	84
endgame	22	50
foul	0	0
total	71	171

Result

Final score

71 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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