Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.82 – 170.3

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.5 ±18.8

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 176.41Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11388STEAM & IRON ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 14.6Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

7444MOON STAR ROBOTICS

Season APEX 149Event APEX 102.81Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.9 ±12.2

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 69.33Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 44.36Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 56.61Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2905, 11388, 7444

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2905, 11388, 7444

Auto

45.6 16%

Teleop

177.9 64%

Endgame

54.2 20%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6985, 10598, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6985, 10598, 9025

Auto

17.9 10%

Teleop

104.6 61%

Endgame

48.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score293.8pts

Blue projected score170.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.5
Score range: 150–314
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.5Season APEX383.9

45.6Auto17.9

177.9Teleop104.6

54.2Endgame48.6

198Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	56
teleop	147	37
endgame	58	3
foul	15	5
total	299	101

Result

Final score

299 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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