Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.54 – 135.99

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.3 ±20.7

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 42.22Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11392Gulf Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 7.57Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

64294th Dimension

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 41.75Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±17.6

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 51.91Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 66.22Rank 11Record 4-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10203LANCE

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 17.86Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7050, 11392, 6429

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7050, 11392, 6429

Auto

27.1 32%

Teleop

42.7 51%

Endgame

14.0 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10202, 8806, 10203

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10202, 8806, 10203

Auto

21.1 16%

Teleop

97.9 74%

Endgame

12.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.5pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.4
Score range: 70–158
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.3Season APEX312.6

27.1Auto21.1

42.7Teleop97.9

14Endgame12.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	14
teleop	39	41
endgame	3	41
foul	5	0
total	102	96

Result

Final score

102 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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