Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.74 – 10.83

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.6 ±16

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 67.98Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 64.32Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 36.44Rank 17Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.4 ±18.5

9591DESTAN

Provisional

Season APEX 29.2Event APEX -29.77Rank 42Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

11371Odyssey

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 17.98Rank 19Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 22.62Rank 8Record 5-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11216, 11442, 9231

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 11442, 9231

Auto

33.5 20%

Teleop

118.4 71%

Endgame

14.2 9%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9591, 11371, 9232

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9591, 11371, 9232

Auto

11.5 74%

Teleop

-0.7 0%

Endgame

4.8 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score168.7pts

Blue projected score10.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 157.9
Score range: -11–191
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.6Season APEX195.4

33.5Auto11.5

118.4Teleop-0.7

14.2Endgame4.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	29
teleop	80	22
endgame	54	6
foul	15	0
total	185	57

Result

Final score

185 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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