Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.82 – 199.53

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.9 ±23.7

10203LANCE

Provisional

Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 18.39Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 9.92Rank 38Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 0.51Rank 40Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±14.8

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 67.07Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 90.77Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10689KAGITHANE TEKNOLOJI TAKIMI

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 41.69Rank 26Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10203, 10521, 10243

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10203, 10521, 10243

Auto

6.2 27%

Teleop

8.3 36%

Endgame

8.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8151, 6985, 10689

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 6985, 10689

Auto

42.2 22%

Teleop

122.0 63%

Endgame

28.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score28.8pts

Blue projected score199.5pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.7
Score range: 2–227
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.9Season APEX294.7

6.2Auto42.2

8.3Teleop122

8.5Endgame28.6

5Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	21
teleop	5	147
endgame	2	32
foul	5	0
total	20	200

Result

Final score

20 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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