Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.4 – 197.42

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.5 ±19.1

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 55.5Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10445HYPERVOLT

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 28.31Rank 43Record 0-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9089ACS Phoenix

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 25.59Rank 29Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.2 ±16.4

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 35.02Rank 21Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8759ARPEX

Provisional

Season APEX 35.8Event APEX 13.38Rank 34Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 149.02Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8151, 10445, 9089

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 10445, 9089

Auto

12.9 12%

Teleop

76.5 73%

Endgame

15.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9025, 8759, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9025, 8759, 2905

Auto

35.3 18%

Teleop

123.9 64%

Endgame

33.8 18%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109.4pts

Blue projected score197.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88
Score range: 88–218
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.5Season APEX445.2

12.9Auto35.3

76.5Teleop123.9

15Endgame33.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	42	188
endgame	20	92
foul	0	0
total	78	295

Result

Final score

78 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 64.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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