Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.61 – 156.66

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.2 ±17.3

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 60.49Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX -13.24Rank 36Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9497NIMBLE PANTHER

Provisional

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 61.36Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±18

10689KAGITHANE TEKNOLOJI TAKIMI

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 36.56Rank 26Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

7444MOON STAR ROBOTICS

Season APEX 149Event APEX 92.42Rank 2Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 27.68Rank 32Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7840, 10383, 9497

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7840, 10383, 9497

Auto

43.3 40%

Teleop

30.5 28%

Endgame

35.6 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10689, 7444, 9020

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10689, 7444, 9020

Auto

32.3 21%

Teleop

98.2 63%

Endgame

26.1 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.6pts

Blue projected score156.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48
Score range: 89–177
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.2Season APEX278.4

43.3Auto32.3

30.5Teleop98.2

35.6Endgame26.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	51
teleop	74	108
endgame	51	45
foul	5	0
total	160	204

Result

Final score

160 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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