Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.32 – 65.92

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 24

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.1 ±17.2

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 6.29Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 15.57Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10236REXTED

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX -0.54Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120.8 ±23.2

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 42.55Rank 20Record 3-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

10251Chimera

Provisional

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 11.37Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10243Yücel Boru ANATOLIAN WOLVES

Provisional

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 12Rank 40Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6014, 10598, 10236

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6014, 10598, 10236

Auto

7.8 33%

Teleop

13.4 56%

Endgame

2.8 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8182, 10251, 10243

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8182, 10251, 10243

Auto

17.3 25%

Teleop

43.8 63%

Endgame

8.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score21.3pts

Blue projected score65.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.6
Score range: 0–87
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.1Season APEX120.8

7.8Auto17.3

13.4Teleop43.8

2.8Endgame8.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	7
teleop	62	13
endgame	35	4
foul	10	0
total	133	24

Result

Final score

133 – 24

Prediction missed · off by 76.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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