Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.14 – 65.29

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.4 ±21.4

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 15.33Rank 27Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11388STEAM & IRON ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 13.15Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

9555TEAM HELIOS

Provisional

Season APEX 33Event APEX 21.66Rank 41Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.4 ±20.3

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -16.73Rank 38Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10549Robocretors Team

Provisional

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 20.24Rank 37Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 61.78Rank 13Record 4-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8859, 11388, 9555

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 11388, 9555

Auto

27.7 59%

Teleop

7.6 16%

Endgame

11.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10521, 10549, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10521, 10549, 8595

Auto

15.6 24%

Teleop

40.3 62%

Endgame

9.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score65.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.2
Score range: 29–86
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.4Season APEX348.4

27.7Auto15.6

7.6Teleop40.3

11.5Endgame9.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	40
teleop	32	74
endgame	6	14
foul	25	5
total	73	133

Result

Final score

73 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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