Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.61 – 137.09

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±15.6

11442FEKAL ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 109.4Event APEX 52.33Rank 7Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6985ENKA TECH

Season APEX 193.7Event APEX 61.34Rank 4Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX -5.06Rank 28Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256 ±20.7

10202NOVATRON

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 60.21Rank 22Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11335MARETECH

Provisional

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 21.52Rank 14Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

6228MAT Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 55.36Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11442, 6985, 11010

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11442, 6985, 11010

Auto

25.5 23%

Teleop

68.3 62%

Endgame

15.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10202, 11335, 6228

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10202, 11335, 6228

Auto

29.9 22%

Teleop

92.2 67%

Endgame

14.9 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.6pts

Blue projected score137.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 88–158
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.1Season APEX256

25.5Auto29.9

68.3Teleop92.2

15.8Endgame14.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	17
teleop	140	75
endgame	9	12
foul	5	0
total	162	104

Result

Final score

162 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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