Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.94 – 129.58

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 341

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.9 ±16.3

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 51Rank 5Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8308GFLRobotics

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 89.71Rank 10Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7840EMONER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 168.1Event APEX 58.23Rank 3Record 6-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.1 ±15.9

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 89.71Rank 1Record 7-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9497NIMBLE PANTHER

Provisional

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 15.3Rank 16Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 24.57Rank 11Record 4-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11216, 8308, 7840

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 8308, 7840

Auto

41.1 21%

Teleop

131.7 67%

Endgame

25.0 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2905, 9497, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2905, 9497, 8806

Auto

39.6 30%

Teleop

70.1 53%

Endgame

21.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score198.9pts

Blue projected score129.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.4
Score range: 112–217
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 102.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.9Season APEX464.1

41.1Auto39.6

131.7Teleop70.1

25Endgame21.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	55
teleop	118	208
endgame	48	63
foul	5	15
total	222	341

Result

Final score

222 – 341

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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