Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.1 – 126.27

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136 ±19.5

10689KAGITHANE TEKNOLOJI TAKIMI

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 51.41Rank 26Record 2-4-1Status establishedConfidence 76

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 22.86Rank 35Record 2-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9591DESTAN

Provisional

Season APEX 29.2Event APEX 10.83Rank 42Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±20.3

10251Chimera

Provisional

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 22.86Rank 39Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 51.41Rank 9Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7050SARNIC

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 52Rank 12Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10689, 6014, 9591

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10689, 6014, 9591

Auto

12.4 15%

Teleop

58.1 70%

Endgame

12.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10251, 8151, 7050

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10251, 8151, 7050

Auto

21.8 18%

Teleop

78.0 63%

Endgame

24.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score126.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.2
Score range: 66–145
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136Season APEX165.7

12.4Auto21.8

58.1Teleop78

12.3Endgame24.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	17	43
endgame	6	27
foul	0	5
total	34	90

Result

Final score

34 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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