Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.96 – 102.62

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 44.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±20.7

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 48.79Rank 8Record 5-1-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10236REXTED

Provisional

Season APEX 45Event APEX 7.81Rank 24Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10549Robocretors Team

Provisional

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 25.36Rank 37Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.6 ±18.5

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 17.19Rank 36Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9555TEAM HELIOS

Provisional

Season APEX 33Event APEX 50.57Rank 41Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 34.86Rank 25Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9232, 10236, 10549

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9232, 10236, 10549

Auto

17.4 22%

Teleop

39.1 49%

Endgame

22.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10383, 9555, 10598

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10383, 9555, 10598

Auto

25.5 26%

Teleop

60.8 61%

Endgame

12.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.7
Score range: 62–123
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 112.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.9Season APEX139.6

17.4Auto25.5

39.1Teleop60.8

22.9Endgame12.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	14
teleop	35	6
endgame	17	10
foul	0	5
total	61	35

Result

Final score

61 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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