Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.33 – 38.79

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.2 ±23.2

11392Gulf Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 0.49Rank 31Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

8182Loth Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 61Event APEX 46Rank 20Record 3-3-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

11335MARETECH

Provisional

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 14.84Rank 14Record 5-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.7 ±21.1

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 46Rank 32Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10521ERA Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX -13.78Rank 38Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11388STEAM & IRON ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 6.57Rank 18Record 4-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 69

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11392, 8182, 11335

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11392, 8182, 11335

Auto

8.1 16%

Teleop

36.9 72%

Endgame

5.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9020, 10521, 11388

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9020, 10521, 11388

Auto

10.4 29%

Teleop

18.8 53%

Endgame

6.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.3pts

Blue projected score38.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.5
Score range: 17–83
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.2Season APEX215.7

8.1Auto10.4

36.9Teleop18.8

5.9Endgame6.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	9
teleop	22	11
endgame	11	4
foul	0	5
total	53	29

Result

Final score

53 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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