Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.75 – 100.88

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±13.1

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 81.13Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 11.17Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 87.45Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±17.3

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 38.15Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 36.85Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 25.88Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 9473, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 9473, 11141

Auto

32.1 18%

Teleop

107.7 60%

Endgame

38.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8783, 8220, 11154

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8783, 8220, 11154

Auto

18.8 18%

Teleop

53.9 53%

Endgame

29.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.8pts

Blue projected score100.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.9
Score range: 73–208
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 155.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.5Season APEX151.6

32.1Auto18.8

107.7Teleop53.9

38.3Endgame29.9

9Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	23
teleop	88	20
endgame	34	14
foul	15	0
total	189	57

Result

Final score

189 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.