Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.06 – 256.41

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.6 ±11.7

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 130Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 48.52Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 173.54Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±11.2

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 2.88Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 94.36Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 159.17Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9029, 10502, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10502, 9609

Auto

79.1 24%

Teleop

186.4 56%

Endgame

67.0 20%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 9232, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9232, 9025

Auto

46.7 19%

Teleop

126.6 50%

Endgame

78.7 31%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score352.1pts

Blue projected score256.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.6
Score range: 229–379
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 780 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.6Season APEX274.1

79.1Auto46.7

186.4Teleop126.6

67Endgame78.7

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	46
teleop	266	144
endgame	90	55
foul	0	65
total	470	310

Result

Final score

470 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 85.8 pts

Match videos

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