Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

400.12 – 178.66

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±11

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 6.92Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 203.45Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 189.75Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±13.1

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 81.38Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 10.62Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 86.66Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10043, 7539, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

400.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 7539, 6989

Auto

82.3 21%

Teleop

210.7 55%

Endgame

92.0 24%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7594, 9473, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 9473, 11141

Auto

29.6 17%

Teleop

109.5 62%

Endgame

37.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score400.1pts

Blue projected score178.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 221.5
Score range: 152–427
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 648 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.4Season APEX384.5

82.3Auto29.6

210.7Teleop109.5

92Endgame37.8

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	45
teleop	245	108
endgame	96	42
foul	75	5
total	448	200

Result

Final score

448 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Match videos

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