Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.49 – 106.73

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.9 ±19.1

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 20.98Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 40.54Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 1.97Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±17.3

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 40.42Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 38.55Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 27.76Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10470, 9074, 8500

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10470, 9074, 8500

Auto

15.3 28%

Teleop

29.2 54%

Endgame

9.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8783, 8220, 11154

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8783, 8220, 11154

Auto

17.1 16%

Teleop

57.6 54%

Endgame

32.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.5pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.2
Score range: 36–134
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.9Season APEX151.6

15.3Auto17.1

29.2Teleop57.6

9.8Endgame32.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	24
teleop	28	45
endgame	18	20
foul	0	0
total	65	89

Result

Final score

65 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 pts

Match videos

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