Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.89 – 115.7

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±11.2

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX -2.78Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 87.78Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 152.89Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±17.3

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 44.1Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8220Space Tigers MBA Robotics

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 41.14Rank 10Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 30.46Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9583, 9232, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9232, 9025

Auto

47.8 21%

Teleop

114.4 49%

Endgame

69.7 30%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8783, 8220, 11154

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8783, 8220, 11154

Auto

18.2 16%

Teleop

59.9 52%

Endgame

37.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.9pts

Blue projected score115.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: 89–265
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 150.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.1Season APEX151.6

47.8Auto18.2

114.4Teleop59.9

69.7Endgame37.8

55Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	12
teleop	174	54
endgame	110	14
foul	0	0
total	324	80

Result

Final score

324 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 pts

Match videos

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