Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

332.29 – 62.04

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.6 ±11.7

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 122.61Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 43.03Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 166.65Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.9 ±19.1

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 21.07Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 39.43Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 1.54Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9029, 10502, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10502, 9609

Auto

86.2 28%

Teleop

159.8 52%

Endgame

61.6 20%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10470, 9074, 8500

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10470, 9074, 8500

Auto

13.9 26%

Teleop

33.2 63%

Endgame

5.5 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score332.3pts

Blue projected score62pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 270.3
Score range: 35–359
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 149.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.6Season APEX134.9

86.2Auto13.9

159.8Teleop33.2

61.6Endgame5.5

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	16
teleop	287	34
endgame	89	34
foul	5	5
total	431	89

Result

Final score

431 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts

Match videos

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