Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.53 – 105.15

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±13.1

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 76.05Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 4.17Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 80.31Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±17.5

6025Adroit Androids

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 23.07Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 26.23Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 55.85Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 9473, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 9473, 11141

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

100.7 63%

Endgame

34.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6025, 10244, 9021

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6025, 10244, 9021

Auto

22.9 23%

Teleop

44.2 45%

Endgame

30.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.5pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.4
Score range: 78–188
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 148.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.5Season APEX166

24.3Auto22.9

100.7Teleop44.2

34.2Endgame30.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	22
teleop	160	61
endgame	55	26
foul	0	0
total	261	109

Result

Final score

261 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Match videos

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