Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

396.26 – 288.16

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±11

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 3.73Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 190.31Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 202.22Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.1 ±11.2

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 12.05Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 106.27Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 169.84Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10043, 6989, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 6989, 7539

Auto

76.4 20%

Teleop

210.0 56%

Endgame

87.1 23%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9583, 9232, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9583, 9232, 9025

Auto

51.5 19%

Teleop

141.2 53%

Endgame

74.8 28%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score396.3pts

Blue projected score288.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.1
Score range: 259–425
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 159.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.4Season APEX274.1

76.4Auto51.5

210Teleop141.2

87.1Endgame74.8

6Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	53
teleop	193	96
endgame	129	67
foul	0	30
total	385	246

Result

Final score

385 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Match videos

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