Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.27 – 372.6

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

343 – 374

Prediction missed · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±11

10043Conscius Robotics

Season APEX 39.7Event APEX 8.06Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 193.18Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 206.03Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.6 ±11.7

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 137.15Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 55.12Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 180.33Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10043, 6989, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10043, 6989, 7539

Auto

71.4 19%

Teleop

216.5 57%

Endgame

92.8 24%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9029, 10502, 9609

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9029, 10502, 9609

Auto

84.9 24%

Teleop

200.7 56%

Endgame

71.2 20%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score407.3pts

Blue projected score372.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.7
Score range: 345–435
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 717 vs event baseline 155.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.4Season APEX515.6

71.4Auto84.9

216.5Teleop200.7

92.8Endgame71.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	52
teleop	177	207
endgame	60	100
foul	5	15
total	343	374

Result

Final score

343 – 374

Prediction missed · off by 32.8 pts

Match videos

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