Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.26 – 105.15

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±12.7

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 42.17Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 64.52Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 24.57Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±15.8

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 24.56Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9232IBBTECH

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 56.02Rank 6Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9523Archers

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 24.57Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11141, 8783, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11141, 8783, 9583

Auto

30.4 24%

Teleop

68.1 53%

Endgame

29.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7672, 9232, 9523

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7672, 9232, 9523

Auto

24.2 22%

Teleop

60.5 56%

Endgame

23.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score105.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.1
Score range: 79–157
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX212.7

30.4Auto24.2

68.1Teleop60.5

29.3Endgame23.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	36
teleop	43	65
endgame	31	46
foul	0	0
total	98	147

Result

Final score

98 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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