Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.27 – 103.99

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.5 ±18.5

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 35.14Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 5.14Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9074Roboant

Season APEX 51Event APEX 33.99Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±12.8

10244WOLFS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 63.71Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 5.14Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 35.14Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9473, 8500, 9074

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9473, 8500, 9074

Auto

18.1 25%

Teleop

40.9 56%

Endgame

13.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10244, 9024, 9029

/ 100 compat

Projected

104 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10244, 9024, 9029

Auto

28.3 28%

Teleop

57.1 56%

Endgame

17.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.3pts

Blue projected score104pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.7
Score range: 48–130
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.5Season APEX312.5

18.1Auto28.3

40.9Teleop57.1

13.8Endgame17.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	38
teleop	6	126
endgame	3	38
foul	30	0
total	53	202

Result

Final score

53 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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