Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.95 – 424.79

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

268 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±15.4

9609Paraducks

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 174.15Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10247RedFox

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 18.05Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8783Apeiron

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 35.75Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.7 ±13.9

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 53.3Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 168.08Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7539Elev8

Season APEX 213.1Event APEX 203.41Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9609, 10247, 8783

/ 100 compat

Projected

228 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9609, 10247, 8783

Auto

48.3 22%

Teleop

116.0 53%

Endgame

55.5 25%

Strengths

· 9609 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9021, 9025, 7539

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9021, 9025, 7539

Auto

87.6 21%

Teleop

213.7 52%

Endgame

108.1 26%

Strengths

· 7539 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228pts

Blue projected score424.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -196.8
Score range: 197–456
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 733 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.9Season APEX416.7

48.3Auto87.6

116Teleop213.7

55.5Endgame108.1

10Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	66
teleop	134	244
endgame	56	155
foul	10	0
total	268	465

Result

Final score

268 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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