Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.96 – 34.45

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±9.8

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 157.36Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9029Team NF

Season APEX 203.7Event APEX 128.14Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9583Lavender Robotics

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 3.46Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 94.1 ±20.2

10548TechTonic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -15.61Rank 31Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10353HATAY ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 28.83Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10470Sancar Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 21.23Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9025, 9029, 9583

/ 100 compat

Projected

289 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9025, 9029, 9583

Auto

57.4 21%

Teleop

150.7 55%

Endgame

68.0 25%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10548, 10353, 10470

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10548, 10353, 10470

Auto

15.0 36%

Teleop

29.6 72%

Endgame

-3.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score289pts

Blue projected score34.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254.5
Score range: 8–315
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.4Season APEX94.1

57.4Auto15

150.7Teleop29.6

68Endgame-3.3

23Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	14
teleop	110	10
endgame	27	10
foul	30	0
total	248	34

Result

Final score

248 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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