Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.85 – 155.02

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±16

7594Nautilus

Season APEX 143.3Event APEX 71.84Rank 7Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10142ANDROMEDA

Season APEX 19.7Event APEX 7.55Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9473CYGNUS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 23.1Event APEX 0.46Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349 ±14.9

9021uSELESScASE

Season APEX 71.4Event APEX 59.14Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 17.61Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 78.27Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7594, 10142, 9473

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7594, 10142, 9473

Auto

3.4 4%

Teleop

50.0 61%

Endgame

28.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9021, 7672, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9021, 7672, 11141

Auto

36.9 26%

Teleop

81.5 57%

Endgame

25.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score79.9pts

Blue projected score155pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.2
Score range: 54–181
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 146.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.1Season APEX349

3.4Auto36.9

50Teleop81.5

28.5Endgame25.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	43
teleop	85	78
endgame	46	5
foul	0	5
total	146	131

Result

Final score

146 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree