Qualification · Qualification 54
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
99 – 120.1
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
33 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.8 ±16.9
Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 26.67Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 44.18Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 28.15Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.5 ±17.9
Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 29.95Rank 9Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 50.53Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 39.62Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10247, 10502, 10470
46
/ 100 compatProjected
99 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 10247, 10502, 10470
Auto
28.0 36%
Teleop
34.3 44%
Endgame
16.2 21%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6025, 8783, 9502
54
/ 100 compatProjected
120.1 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 6025, 8783, 9502
Auto
24.6 21%
Teleop
54.7 47%
Endgame
36.5 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 34%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score99pts
Blue projected score120.1pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 34%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -21.1
- Score range
- 72–147
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
141.8Season APEX133.5
28Auto24.6
34.3Teleop54.7
16.2Endgame36.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 16 |
| teleop | 4 | 23 |
| endgame | 9 | 4 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 33 | 58 |
Result
Final score
33 – 58
Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree