Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.11 – 193.7

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.6 ±19.1

8500ROBEST Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX -1.32Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11154XR-Boot

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 24.38Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8777SafranTech

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 15.05Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±12.8

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 155.87Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7672SCORPIONS ROBOTICS

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 16.85Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9024Callister

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 20.98Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8500, 11154, 8777

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8500, 11154, 8777

Auto

14.6 38%

Teleop

8.2 21%

Endgame

15.4 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9025, 7672, 9024

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9025, 7672, 9024

Auto

38.2 20%

Teleop

105.1 55%

Endgame

48.9 25%

Strengths

· 9025 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.1pts

Blue projected score193.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.6
Score range: 11–221
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.6Season APEX247.8

14.6Auto38.2

8.2Teleop105.1

15.4Endgame48.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	45
teleop	17	93
endgame	2	40
foul	0	5
total	31	183

Result

Final score

31 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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